Friday, 12 January 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (8, 15, 19) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 November 2023 — its closest relative in 2,509 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 January 2024): 29 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 4 repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 71 — the 47th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. No two numbers side by side. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.