Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 6, 27, 28) with the draw of 7 July 2010 — its closest relative in 167 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 31% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 November 2011): 5, 6, 27 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 110 — the 31th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6, 27–28. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.