Thursday, 7 May 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 5 numbers (4, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 March 2015 — its closest relative in 28 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 May 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 103 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.