Thursday, 18 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 30, 31) with the draw of 26 July 2011 — its closest relative in 273 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 August 2011): 29, 31 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 128 — the 96th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30, 30–31. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.