Saturday, 24 March 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 23, 24, 30) with the draw of 5 October 2011 — its closest relative in 492 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 20% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 March 2012): 15, 24 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 125 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.