Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 8, 21, 22) with the draw of 4 February 2011 — its closest relative in 1,665 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 54% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 June 2015): 14 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 69 — the 16th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.