Monday, 11 June 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 30, 31, 32) with the draw of 18 December 2013 — its closest relative in 2,525 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 69% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 June 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 125 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31, 31–32. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.