Saturday, 2 May 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (13, 16, 21, 48) with the draw of 3 March 2018 — its closest relative in 1,078 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 66% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 April 2020): 13 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 137 — the 34th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17, 21–22. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 56 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 46% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.