Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 5, 23, 30) with the draw of 15 November 2013 — its closest relative in 2,057 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 46% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 December 2015): 23 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.