Friday, 21 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (30, 37, 38) with the draw of 3 February 2020 — its closest relative in 1,372 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 August 2020): 21 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 165 — the 100th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38, 38–39. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.