Monday, 17 May 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 4, 11, 42) with the draw of 21 August 2017 — its closest relative in 1,159 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 May 2021): 14 carried over. Chance says 62% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 96 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 132. No two numbers side by side. 55% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.