Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 15, 25) with the draw of 3 September 2014 — its closest relative in 581 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 October 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 104 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 40 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.