Saturday, 9 January 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 2, 28) with the draw of 12 August 2015 — its closest relative in 600 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 January 2016): 4 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 60 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.