Saturday, 15 February 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 19, 35) with the draw of 2 March 2019 — its closest relative in 1,028 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 February 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 100 — the 42th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.