Saturday, 24 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 14, 20) with the draw of 28 November 2020 — its closest relative in 1,152 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 62 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.