In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 1 from 1–25 (an earlier era).
40times drawn · chance expected 31 +1.64σ
56draws waiting · a wait this long: 11% for any number
18.4average wait between appearances · chance says 25.0
84longest completed wait · 74% chance of one at least that long
11 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 40 times in 776 draws against 31.0 expected, +1.64σ. Each draw is independent: after 56 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
11
Number 11, draw by draw
Drawn 40 times in 776 draws · average wait 18.4 draws · longest completed wait 84 · waiting 56 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 24 of the other 24 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 25. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 1/25 tonight whatever it did last week.