In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 1 from 1–25 (an earlier era).
26times drawn · chance expected 31 −0.92σ
7draws waiting · a wait this long: 78% for any number
30.5average wait between appearances · chance says 25.0
90longest completed wait · 49% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 26 times in 776 draws against 31.0 expected, −0.92σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 26 times in 776 draws · average wait 30.5 draws · longest completed wait 90 · waiting 7 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 24 of the other 24 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 14th most popular of 25. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 1/25 tonight whatever it did last week.