In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 1 from 1–25 (an earlier era).
31times drawn · chance expected 31 −0.01σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
25.8average wait between appearances · chance says 25.0
92longest completed wait · 52% chance of one at least that long
3 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 31 times in 776 draws against 31.0 expected, −0.01σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
3
Number 3, draw by draw
Drawn 31 times in 776 draws · average wait 25.8 draws · longest completed wait 92 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 24 of the other 24 numbers; chance expects about 24 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 25. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 1/25 tonight whatever it did last week.