Monday, 29 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 12, 45) with the draw of 4 August 2014 — its closest relative in 740 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 December 2014): 12, 17 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 48th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

41 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.