Friday, 16 December 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (22, 33, 38, 42) with the draw of 11 April 2011 — its closest relative in 1,048 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 13% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 December 2016): 22, 38 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 149 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

42 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.