Monday, 26 September 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 15, 17, 18) with the draw of 29 July 2014 — its closest relative in 2,357 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 September 2016): 17 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 53th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 18–19. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.