Sunday, 17 April 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 10, 15, 16) with the draw of 27 August 2014 — its closest relative in 4,386 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 April 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 71 — the 31th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.