Wednesday, 4 July 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (21, 22, 34, 37) with the draw of 2 February 2011 — its closest relative in 2,998 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 59% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 July 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 128 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.