Saturday, 21 September 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 5, 28, 35) with the draw of 1 August 2015 — its closest relative in 3,442 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 64% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 September 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 75 — the 15th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 4–5. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.