Friday, 16 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 16, 17, 22) with the draw of 3 July 2019 — its closest relative in 4,015 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 70% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 April 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 93 — the 38th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.