Thursday, 30 September 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 23, 37) with the draw of 16 June 2021 — its closest relative in 4,182 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 129 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 36–37. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.