Saturday, 19 February 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 24, 25) with the draw of 1 January 2022 — its closest relative in 4,324 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2022): 16, 24 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17, 24–25. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.