Saturday, 20 November 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (4, 14, 15) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 February 2021 — its closest relative in 1,828 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 November 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 53 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 64. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.