Saturday, 4 February 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 16, 28) with the draw of 28 September 2011 — its closest relative in 191 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2012): 15 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 14–15, 15–16. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.