Saturday, 14 December 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (17, 21, 43) with the draw of 12 October 2019 — its closest relative in 583 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 December 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 55th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 17–18, 20–21. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.