Sunday, 22 May 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 2, 12) with the draw of 15 April 2011 — its closest relative in 408 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 May 2011): 1 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 59 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 11–12. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.