Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 12, 24) with the draw of 18 April 2012 — its closest relative in 748 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (30 April 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 102 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 23–24. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 7 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.