Tuesday, 5 December 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 17, 22) with the draw of 14 August 2017 — its closest relative in 563 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 December 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 78 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.