Monday, 17 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (28, 29, 36) with the draw of 28 July 2020 — its closest relative in 652 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 August 2020): 29, 36 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 124 — the 69th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16, 28–29. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.