Saturday, 19 January 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 12, 39) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 11 October 2017 — its closest relative in 916 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 January 2019): 25 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 90 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.