Saturday, 9 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 13, 16) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 22 July 2023 — its closest relative in 1,438 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 December 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 70 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.