Monday, 22 July 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 3, 17) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 February 2024 — its closest relative in 1,535 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 July 2024): 3 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 2 repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 59 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.