Saturday, 26 July 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 16, 20, 21) with the draw of 28 August 2011 — its closest relative in 1,560 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 34% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 July 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 36th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.