Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 29, 30) with the draw of 8 April 2015 — its closest relative in 238 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 May 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 94 — the 27th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.