Monday, 1 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 13, 31) with the draw of 4 August 2014 — its closest relative in 1,451 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 November 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 33th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.