Thursday, 24 October 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 11, 30, 32) with the draw of 4 June 2019 — its closest relative in 3,157 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 69% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 October 2019): 28, 30 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 111 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.