Sunday, 14 July 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 15, 16, 23) with the draw of 29 July 2016 — its closest relative in 4,882 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 July 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 34th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.