Monday, 23 January 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (43, 44, 47, 48) with the draw of 8 February 2010 — its closest relative in 322 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 27% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 January 2012): 44 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 232 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 43–44, 44–45, 47–48. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

48 had not appeared for 41 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.3× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 73% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.