Monday, 25 January 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 26, 27) with the draw of 12 September 2015 — its closest relative in 949 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 January 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 152 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26, 26–27, 34–35. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 46 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 45% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.