Saturday, 28 September 2013

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 14 August 2013. Chance gave a match this close a 65% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 September 2013): 2, 4, 5, 9 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 21 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2, 4–5. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 3 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.