Monday, 13 November 2017

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 21 September 2017. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 November 2017): 4, 9 carried over. Chance says 100% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 32 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 23. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5, 5–6, 8–9. 98% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 2 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.