Monday, 5 April 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 15, 25, 28) with the draw of 2 August 2018 — its closest relative in 4,008 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 70% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 April 2021): 15 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 87 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.