Thursday, 16 February 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 14, 17, 30) with the draw of 18 January 2017 — its closest relative in 4,690 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 February 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 78 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.