Thursday, 25 December 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 23, 27, 35) with the draw of 27 December 2011 — its closest relative in 1,715 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 December 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 111 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.