Sunday, 1 February 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 15, 31) with the draw of 8 January 2015 — its closest relative in 1,752 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 January 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 114 — the 83th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 31–32, 32–33. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.